“If someone is doing something they know they shouldn’t be doing, they’re much more likely to be doing that on Polymarket than Kalshi,” said Joseph Grundfest, a former Securities and Exchange commissioner who is now a law professor at Stanford University.

Grundfest, the former SEC commissioner, said the arrests in Israel should put militaries around the world on edge about personnel attempting to cash in on classified secrets.

“Such bets,” he said, “can put your own military at greater risk because you are signaling to your enemies what may happen, and that puts your own troops in danger.”