Tom Dannenbaum, a professor of international law at Stanford University, sees this as the central issue facing the institution. The next prosecutor, he says, will have to withstand pressure from powerful governments while relying on member states to defend the court’s work.

“The court needs a prosecutor who is willing to pursue investigations and cases against the most powerful actors in the system, despite the extraordinary forces being deployed in the opposite direction,” Dannenbaum told New Lines.

But Dannenbaum warned that avoiding conflict with powerful states could come at a greater cost, weakening the very legitimacy the ICC depends on. A prosecutor who allows political pressure to shape decisions, he said, risks turning the institution into a court that exists in name but no longer fulfills its purpose.

For Dannenbaum, resisting political pressure is only part of what’s needed. The prosecutor must also continue building cases even when arrests seem out of reach, because political circumstances can change. He points to the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte as an example.