No. 152: Uncertainty, Central Bank Digital Currency, and the Future of the Transatlantic Economic Order
Abstract
CBDCs represent a paradigmatic shift in the historical development of money with potentially profound ramifications for monetary policy, financial stability, and the international monetary system. The present paper takes a closer look at CBDCs in the context of uncertainty, establishing a conceptual distinction between quantifiable risks and broader epistemic/aleatory uncertainties associated with technological change, institutional design, and market forces. It is argued that CBDCs do not eliminate uncertainty, but rather transform it, introducing new risks related to financial intermediation, technology, and international spillovers. In the process, the development of CBDCs can be seen within the framework of geoeconomics, contrasting the U.S. approach, characterized by fragmentation and plurality of private digital monies, with the unified vision advanced by the European Union as part of the initiative to introduce the digital euro, representing monetary sovereignty in the new technological reality.